College Football Week 0 Gambling Primer

Weeeeeee aarrrrreeeee backkkkkkkk.

Lines taken at 1:43 PM via Points Bet. 

The main event comes to us in Orlando. A battle between (kind of) rivals. Week 0 has been around for a few years now, but this is the first Week 0 game that does have an effect on the CFP race. I don’t see either of these teams making it to the final four, but they do control their own destiny unlike a game between Colorado State & Hawaii or Stanford & Rice.

I was looking to take Florida minus the points, but I just have too many questions about the team to lay 7 points in a game with a total at 45.5.

-How will Florida’s new OL look with 4 new starters against a top tier Miami DL?

-Will the defense play up to expectations even with recent injuries to DL Brenton Cox, DB CJ McWilliams, and LB David Reese?

-The offseason was hectic with 5 class of 2019 recruits leaving campus and another 6 players entering the transfer portal. Was this Dan Mullen getting rid of the weak or is this a bigger issue?

-How good is Jarren Williams for Miami at QB?

I still don’t see Florida losing this game when you consider that this is Manny Diaz’s first game as a head coach with a Freshman QB going up against an SEC defense lead by one of the best defensive coordinators in America (Todd Grantham). Feleipe Franks is a great QB, possibly the most underrated player in the country. Would you believe me if I told you he only threw 6 interceptions last year to 24 TDs? The narrative is out there that he is a turnover machine. I completely disagree.

I will be parlaying Florida -301 with Arizona -411. I, also, will be having some action on the first half under. Two great defenses going up against a Freshman QB on one team and a brand new OL on the other in the first game of their season? I expect a slow start.

I’m high on Hawaii this year. I think they have a shot to find themselves in the Mountain West conference championship game. However, tonight could be a long night for a Hawaii defense that ranked 118th last year.

We’ll remember Khalil Tate’s 2018 season as one that started with a Heisman hopeful but quickly become a disappointment. I do think his struggles had to do more with his injuries (ankle) than lack of talent to defenses that adjusted to his unique playing style. Given a full 9 months to recover, I think Khalil Tate comes out tonight and lights Hawaii up for 40+ points.

Cole McDonald is a great QB for Hawaii and he’ll do his best to match everything Khalil Tate does, but Arizona returning the 11th most production in America on defense bodes well for a unit that ranked 74th last year. Hawaii could cover this one late, so I do lean with the points. However, as I mentioned a few paragraphs above, I’ll be that asshole who is parlaying the two favorites on opening night.

Picks:

Parlay: Arizona (-411)/Florida (-301) -152

Florida/Miami 1H Under 21.5 (-115)