College Basketball Gambling Primer Presented By PointsBet For November 12
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YTD: 2-4 (-2.4, thanks a lot Greg Gard for not fouling)
Picks
Creighton +5.5
Northeastern/UMass over 140
Siena +1
Minnesota +8
Washington State +3.5
UL-Lafayette +17
Betting Process: I actually think it's weird betting the first week or two. College hoops is weird and you have people making a bunch of jumps in terms of minutes and roles. So for the first week I tend to go small and use a combo of KenPom's numbers vs Vegas number plus my own insight. Then come Thanksgiving tournament time, it's time to start really betting. I've tend to noticed that if a KenPom number is off the Vegas number by 5(ish) points it's worth looking into.
Am I terrified of Jon Teske having a monster game against a weaker Creighton frontline? You betcha. Did I ever think I'd write that about Jon Teske? Absolutely not. That said the line being at 5.5 is enough for me to trust Creighton's backcourt. Not only that but I really trust McDermott's offensive mind vs Juwan Howard in game 2 at the college level, even if I think Howard is going to be good at Michigan. I love that trio of Alexander, Ballock and Zegarowski. Not only that but Creighton plays at such a ridiculous fast pace that they are going to have so many possessions to get looks. I'll take the points.
Pick: Creighton +5.5
Two words, one name. Jordan Roland. Northeastern's guard (transfer from George Washington) started the season dropping 42 against Harvard and 39 against Boston. I'm going to trust a big third game to help get to that number on the over here. Both defenses are also pretty awful, early sub-200 nationally. My fear is a lack of possessions as they both like to play a bit slower than average. Trust Jordan Roland until he gives us a reason not to.
Pick: Over 140
This is a gross game. Minnesota might not have 5 high major plays on its roster right now and Butler has about four guys that are healthy. One of those that aren't healthy is Kamar Baldwin who is battling an apparent rib injury. The line dropped already so hopefully you got this at Minnesota at +9, but we're taking baby Pitino here. I can't stress how much this game stinks though.
Pick: Minnesota +8
TCU has played 1 game - a non Division I team that was a 21 point game. Now we get an upgrade in opponent and get a chance to fade them. Listen, Jamie Dixon is a good coach but this team just isn't that good. It's Desmond Bane and a whole lot of questions. Even if Bane is an All-Big 12 player I'm firmly on team fade TCU this year. ULL is going to speed up the game and try to score fast, hopefully it keeps them in that number.
Pick: ULL +17
We're 1-0 betting on Siena this year and we're sticking with it. St. Bonaventure is still expected to be without Osun Osunniyi, without a doubt its best player. Siena still has Jalen Picket, without a doubt its best player and one of the best players in the country. So you're giving me a point at home with this? Yeah I'll take that.
Pick: Siena +1
Yes, Washington State is typically awful, hell they won't be that good this year. But, I love Kyle Smith taking over the program. Smith is one of the true analytical pioneers in the college hoops world, meaning we're going to see them play for layups, threes and take a different approach to what we're used to with Wazzu. Also CJ Elleby is a hell of a player and despite being on the road he's good enough to keep Wazzu in it. Also, we get to cheer against Herb Sendek.
Pick: Washington State +3.5
Game of the night
I don't want to make a pick here since I don't like the game, but it's worth talking about. We get robbed of the N'Faly Dante vs James Wiseman game, but we still get Memphis vs the NCAA vs Oregon. We know the story with James Wiseman now but it appears that Memphis doesn't fucking care. Also means that Memphis has something to play for which is why I'd probably lean them getting the points heading out west. Oregon is a team that a lot of people were high on coming into the year thanks to Payton Pritchard returning and guys like Shakur Juiston and CJ Walker. It's by far the game of the night