NFL Week 12 Picks - Gross Bets and OVERS

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Broncos (3-7) @ Bills (7-3); Noon CT

Pick #1: Broncos +4

Action: 53% of bets on the Bills, 57% of money on the Broncos

Their records are very different, but the Bills and Broncos are the same team.

The Bills are 7-3 because they've feasted on a dog-shit schedule. They eat pieces of shit for breakfast. Their "signature" win was a 14-7 victory over the Titans in Week 5. If the Broncos had the privilege of playing the bozos that the Bills beat this year (Jets/Giants/Bengals/Titans/Dolphins/Redskins/Dolphins again), then the Broncos would be 7-3 too.

Even though these teams are similar, a closer look shows that this match-up favors the Broncos. I told you weeks ago that the Bills can't stop the run, and that's what the Broncos do best offensively. It's gonna be the Lindsay/Freeman show. Defensively, the Broncos stuff the run, so this game will fall on Josh Allen. With Chris Harris Jr. shadowing Allen's only explosive target in John Brown, Allen will only be able to sustain drives through precise passing on short-to-intermediate routes. This is NOT what Josh Allen does.

On a separate note, I typically leave "rah-rah" emotional story lines to college bettors, but I think one applies here: the Broncos are growing closer as a team. Even though they ultimately lost in Minnesota last week, the Broncos showed a ton of preparation to jump out to a 20-0 lead against a clearly superior Vikings team. Shortly after the loss, Von Miller took the entire team out for dinner to celebrate the way they've been practicing and the energy they're bringing each day. This is family shit that keeps a team invested, and I love it.

From a betting market standpoint, this line opened at BUF -5.5, but it shifted to -4 despite the majority of bets being placed on the Bills. Sharps are on the Broncos, and so am I.

In a game likely decided by a field goal, give me 4 points with the team that is emotionally trending up against a team that can't beat an opponent with a pulse.

Buccaneers (3-7) @ Falcons (3-7); Noon CT

Pick #2: Over 52

Action: 68% of bets on the Over, 52% of money on the Over

Not all of my plays are contrarian - I'm betting with the public here. This game screams "OVER!" and I'm listening.

Both defenses' sole strength is stopping the run, but that doesn't mean shit because neither team will consider running offensively. We're looking at the #1 (ATL) and #6 (TB) offenses in pass play percentage against two of the worst pass defenses in the league.  This means chunk plays and clock stoppages for two offenses that rank in the Top-8 in pace of play. Over, Over, Over.

Coming out of the bye, the Atlanta D inexplicably face-fucked division opponents in consecutive weeks, which is keeping this total at a reasonable level. This recent success is being attributed to the shift of Raheem Morris from WR coach to DB coach, and the shift of defensive play-calling duties to Morris and LB coach Jeff Ulbrich. I can believe that this defense is being put in more favorable positions, but there's no fixing the lack of talent on the back end. I can't buy this defense as being "good." And from a planning perspective, how is a defense supposed to anticipate the actions of a madman?

Jameis Winston is an agent of chaos. With 18 interceptions and 11 fumbles, he's inventing new ways to turn the ball over. I mean, look at this shit:

On top of being shitty, he's unlucky. Entertaining the theory that he's in need of corrective vision, perhaps his fortune would turn with prescription lenses or at least some drugstore readers. Give him skull-and-crossbone frames, and this motherfucker is going to the Hall of Fame.

Whether Jameis wants to throw pick-6's or reckless jump-ball TDs, I don't care as long as the scoreboard lights up.

This season is fucked for both teams, so there's no reason to be tentative.  It's "fuck it and chuck it" time, and I'm here for the points.

Giants (2-8) @ Bears (4-6); Noon CT

Pick #3: Taylor Gabriel Over 36 receiving yards

I know you've been feverishly searching for a prop bet recommendation on a tertiary receiving option for a floundering passing attack, and thank goodness you've finally found it.

I got you.

I've talked enough shit about the Giants secondary this year, so you know my thoughts on Janoris Jenkins being the only player of value against the pass. Jenkins will match up with Allen Robinson, so it's open season everywhere else.

On the opposite side of Jenkins, rookie CB DeAndre Baker has been getting fucking TORCHED all season. A more talented roster would move him into the slot, but he's sadly the best option for the Giants on the outside. This week, several unnamed teammates described him as a "handful." I've really only heard that term used by suburban moms who hate their shit-head children. 

"I love the little guys, but Aiden, Kayden, and Braiden sure are a handful!"

AKA "I wanna blow my fucking brains out."

Knowing that Nagy will want to build confidence in his shell of a quarterback, he's gonna draw up 2-3 instances of Taylor Gabriel streaking wide-open past Baker down the sidelines. All we need is for Mitch to connect on one of them to hit this Over. And even if Taylor doesn't catch a bomb, we're looking at a WR who was targeted 14 times last week. If he sees half of those targets this week, the Over hits. 

Cowboys (6-4) @ Patriots (9-1); 3:25pm CT

Pick #4: James White Over 5 receptions

I'm the James White whisperer. I love the man, so I know I have to show restraint in only taking his prop bets a couple times per season when I know it's an absolute smash spot. I'm batting 1.000 with him, and I usually hit his props by halftime.

Everyone is talking about the return of Patriots LT Isaiah Wynn and how it will help this ailing run game of Michel/Burkhead. Although I expect the Patriots to come with a more run-heavy approach, we're looking at a QB in Tom Brady who has thrown 93 passes in the past two weeks. That's not something that can be toned down with the flip of a switch.

Brady is going to throw the ball over 40 times in this game, and with injuries to Dorsett and Sanu, those passes have to go to someone besides Julian Edelman. The Patriots' utilization of talent hinges heavily on trust, and their list of trustworthy targets is short. N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers will get some looks, but they won't be the focus in key spots for what figures to be a close game. The Pats will NEED James White.

Lastly, even though the Cowboys rank 4th in yards/pass allowed, they're sneakily bad at defending pass-catchers out of the backfield (80% of passes to backs are completed at 8 yards/pass). The Patriots don't miss these details. They know this defensive weakness, and they will attack it early.

With the madness of Thanksgiving around the corner, let's enjoy this one today.