College Football Gambling Primer: Week 14, FRIDAY

#StackCashWithJackMac: 109-95, +4.65 units

Virginia +3 (-120)

Nebraska +5.5

Memphis/Cincinnati under 57.5

Virginia Tech has beaten Virginia 15 straight times. It's the last regular season game of Bud Foster's dominant tenure as a defensive coordinator. The Hokies are hot. Everything points towards betting Virginia Tech, right? I'm here to convince you to bet the opposite side. 

Virginia Tech has turned around their season since an embarrassing loss to Duke at home in October. They've dismantled Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest while hanging tough with Notre Dame. They stand at 8-3. All that being said, Virginia will present a new test to them, specifically on offense. 

UVA ranks top 50 in passing and rushing success. Bryce Perkins has the troops ready to go to revenge their brutal loss at VT last year. The defense ranks 32nd in SP+. The Hokies have been great on offense since Hendon Hooker took over, but they haven't seen a team with the combination of a good offense and defense since they lost to Notre Dame. 

UVA should be favored in this game. They have the best special teams in the country according to FEI. We're going to buy this number up to 3 and feel good about a top-40 home team in a rivalry game. 

The streak snaps today. 

Pick: UVA +3 (-120)

2019 has been a disappointment for Nebraska and Scott Frost. With hopes of a Big Ten West title preseason, Nebraska is in their last game of the season fighting for bowl eligibility. 

All that being said, I think Nebraska is slowly turning a corner. Their loss to Wisconsin looks bad on paper, 37-21, but the Huskers outgained the Badgers in that game. The next week they went into Maryland and destroyed the Terps 54-7. Today, they have a favorable matchup against a good, but not great, Iowa team. 

The Huskers key to success comes via the run. Iowa isn't awful by any means, but they rank 52nd in rushing success. The holes will be open for Nebraska's RBs. The other key for Nebraska is the ability to have Adrian Martinez be mobile in the pocket. Iowa ranks 80th in havoc, a stat which measures the ability to contain the plays that Adrian Martinez loves to make. 

The Huskers are going to be able to score. They aren't going to light up the scoreboard by any means, but they won't have to against a very average Iowa offense, which ranks 53rd in SP+ offense. 

The Huskers are motivated for this one. The season is slowly being turned around and bowl eligibility will be on the line. The home crowd will be a massive advantage as well in a rivalry that never gets enough love. 

Pick: Nebraska +5.5

57.5 points may not seem a lot for a Memphis offense that has dropped over 40 points in 5 conference games this year. I still believe the under is the play.

Memphis' best trait on offense is their explosiveness. The bad news for the Tigers is Cincinnati's defense is phenomenal at stopping said explosiveness. This will make for longer drives and more clock drained. 

You may also notice that Memphis has allowed a lot of points on defense. That has come because they stink at defending explosive plays. Guess what: Cincinnati's offense is phenomenally bad at producing explosive plays. Cincinnati will stick to running the ball, which bodes well for the under. 

This one made me feel sick when I pressed submit on my betting ticket, but those are usually the plays to make: the ones that make you feel sick. 

Pick: Under 57.5