Katie Stats' Friday Night CFB Gambling Breakdown
AP. Shutterstock Images.Normally Friday College Football is a snooze fest. This week might be a bit different. Have two ranked teams, and one with the stage set for an upset. I'm all for, and hoping for, BYU to be exposed as a fraud. But we' have another game to talk about first. Let's get into it and talk some football.
Giphy Images.#17 SMU @ Tulane, 6:00pm, opened SMU -7.5, 67.5.
Matchup: SMU has won the last 5 matchups in the last 5 years. In 2019 SMU won 37-20 at home, with the 3 meeting before then only being a 3 or 4 point win margin. 2018: 27-23 @ Tulane. 2017: 41-38 @SMU. 2016: 35-41 @Tulane. SMU is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
SMU (4-0): coming off of a bye week, and a 30-27 win over #25 Memphis on the 3rd. Games are averaging 67.3 total points per game with SMU scoring 44 of them. SMU is averaging 558.5 total yards per game but is allowing 412.5 yards. Can run and pass the ball but prefer the pass game. Senior QB Shane Buechele is slowly turning heads towards him and the team. Has 1,326 yards so far and averaging 9.5 ypp, and had 10 TDs. They lost their top WE Reggie Roberson Jr. for the year due to injury, he was averaging 21.5 yards per catch, with 474 total yards and 5 TDs. Additionally, second-leading rusher TJ McDaniel is also out for the year.
Spread: Has covered the last 3 games this season. When favored on the road under Sonny, are 2-6ATS.
Total: The last 2 games have gone under, with 5/L7 going under. Since 2019, are 8-4 for the over after a win, and all games are 11-6 for the over.
SU: Under Sonny, when a road favorite are 6-2 SU.
Tulane (2-2): coming off of a 49-31 loss to Houston last Thursday, and a 66-24 win over Southern Miss the week before. Lost to Houston even though they forced 5 turnovers. Games are averaging 68 total points per game with Tulane scoring 37 of them. Are averaging just under 100 more yards per game rushing than passing, with averaging 386.8 total yards. Has lost their #2 RB Tyjae Spears due to injury.
Spread: Are 1-3 ATS for the year. On a 6-1 ATS when at home streak. When home underdog are currently 5-0 ATS. After a loss are 6-1 ATS since 2019.
Total: The last 3 games have gone over. When home underdog, 4 straight unders have hit.
Opinion: I think SMU could be very interesting this year. They took a hard hit with losing Roberson and McDaniel, so I hope that they are able to recover quickly from that. I think Tulane is a good figure out the next in line for who will replace the injured players in the lineup. Remember that Tulane had a 24-0 lead going into halftime vs. Navy, and then let them go on a 27-0 run in the second half to win. And Navy had just learned to tackle. SMU, even with the lost players, is still the more talented team, and has had more time to prepare for this. SMU has this.
Giphy Images.#14 BYU @ Houston, 9:30pm, opened BYU -4.5, 60.5.
Matchup: Last met in 2014 and 2013, BYU won both 33-25 and 47-46 respectively. BYU is holding opponents to 71 rushing ypp, whereas Houston is holding them to 70. This is Navy's first away game since their first of the year. This is Houston's third home game in a row.
BYU (4-0) coming off of their smallest win margin, 27-20, over UTSA, and a 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech the week before. Can run or throw the ball, but prefer to throw, There is a lot of hype surrounding QB Zach Wilson, leads in TDS (8), but had his worst game so far vs. UTSA. So is he good or just good when not challenged? Games are averaging 54.8 total points per game, with BYU scoring 43.8 of them. BYU looks very good on paper, but have to look at who they played, and see they weren't tough games. Or is what they're doing above and beyond what a good team would do to these bad teams, and they secretly are legit?
Spread: vs. UTSA was the first time they didn't over this season. The Navy game was the first time, as a less than 7 point favorite, in 7 games that they covered the spread. Since 2019, as an away favorite, are 1-4 ATS, 3-6 ATS after a win, and 3-8 ATS as the favorite.
Total: The last 3 games have gone under. 4 out of the last 5 road games have gone over. Since 2019, are 3-5 for the over after a win, 3-6-1 for over as the favorite, and 4-2 ATS as the favoite.
Houston (1-0) finally was able to kick off their season last Thursday win a 49-31 win over Tulane. Houston's one game totaled 80 points. Had 5 turnovers vs. Tulane yet still won by 18. Can run and throw the ball, but are more dominant throwing.
Spread: Since 2019 are 1-3 ATS as the home favorite
Total: Since 2019 are 6-3-1 for the over as the favorite. Since 2018 are 3-1 for the over when a home underdog.
Opinion: It is really hard to judge this Houston team yet; they've only had one game so far, with a slow but convincing win. BYU on the other hand, I'm putting them up there with Notre Dame for biggest overrated hype trains. I'm not saying they're bad, they just haven't done anything that proves they're more than a good team. I think that this could be the game where BYU is outed as frauds. But with such a small sample size to judge Houston by, it is hard to say with certainty that this is the BYU fraud game. I think that this will be a close game, but I'm going to say that that high scoring offense wasn't a fluke and think that Houston is going to give them a run for their money.
I don't gamble on any of these, if you chose to do so, please do so responsibly. Don't put 26.3 units on a player prop.