My Thoughts On Chiefs/Bill From A Betting Perspective

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Early football today in Buffalo. 

Lets rock… currently at Barstool Sportsbook, the Chiefs are a 5.5 point favorite (-107) and the total is 55. 

Both teams are off a loss and both looked bad defensively. I see a world of value on the Bills here. This a team that has been terrific offensively. Josh Allen had his bad game against Tennessee and I think tonight is an easier go of it against a defense that I think is flat out bad. Allen has frankly put up MVP type numbers, and his chemistry with Stefon Diggs has been evident. This is also a run game that I think can really get going against a vile Chiefs run defense. Look for Singeltary, Yeldon and perhaps rookie Zach Moss off an injury to get going.

The elephant in the room is the Bills defense which I think is actually the much better of the two but injuries have derailed them. There is reasons for optimism though. They SHOULD get LB Matt Milano back and also star corner Tre'Davious White. Both practiced this week and the vibe is they'll be back. Make sure to check inactive reports to sure that up. My optimism is hanging also on the fact that Buffalo is 2nd in the NFL in sending the blitz. They have already blitzed 84 times and heating up the pocket against Mahomes is important. KC's offensive line has it's issues right now after Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opted out, backup Kelechi Osemele is hurt and now Mitchell Schwartz, the right tackle is questionable. The right side of the line could be a mess and depth remains a big problem. With some reinforcements being back hopefully for the Bills, what I think is a concern for KC with the OL and getting the bad taste out their mouths after last week, improvement will show. 

The Chiefs defense is another story and when you look at the numbers, this team is having major issues. They have allowed 7 yards per pass play and are off a game against the Raiders where they allowed over 11 yards a pass play. Vile stuff. It actually get worse when you look at the rushing defense numbers. KC is allowing 158 yards a game on the ground, 2nd worst in the league. They also have been chewed up per rush allowing 5 yards per carry.

I expect a big time performance from this Buffalo offense tonight and the defense bounces back with a better game. Add in the fact that every square on earth is backing the Chiefs on the road. Keep in mind 85 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money. Line has stayed same and some spots moved down. At home, I expect a close game. Bills show up tonight. 

I'll be taking the Bills +5.5…. wit or witout you. 

As always bet responsibly.