Katie Stats' New Year's 6 Games Preview
Giphy Images.Ah welcome to the beautiful stretch between Christmas and New Year's where no one does jack shit. And now add some good football on top of it? Fuck. Yes. I think I've watched an unholy amount of South Park and Letterkenny in this time. I'm super interested in all of these games, and think most people are too. Sure Oregon and Iowa State is maybe a little less so but that's because Oregon is lucky to even be here, but whateverrrr. I hope that all of the games finish within 7, with the exception of Alabama blowing out Notre Dame, and we get good games. But yea, let's talk some football:
Giphy Images.#7 Florida vs. #6 Oklahoma - Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 30 | 8pm @ AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX (opened UF -2.5, 68)
Florida (8-3): coming off of a 52-46 loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game, and lost 37-34 to LSU the week before. Games have been averaging 70.2 total points, with Florida scoring 41.6 of them. They have the #2 passing offense.
Opt outs: TE Kyle Pitts, WR Trevon Grimes, WR Kadarius Toney, and WR Jacob Copeland. The 4 of which account for the top 4 pass catches on Florida.
Spread: When favored by less than 7, are 1-5 ATS in the L6. After a SU loss, they are 4-0 ATS in their next game.
Total: The L4 games against teams with winning records have gone over.
SU: Has won the L8 games when favored against teams with winning records. Have won the L6 games when favored at a neutral site.
Oklahoma (8-2) coming off of winning a B12 Championship over Iowa State, 27-21. Games have been averaging 63.7 total points with Oklahoma scoring 41.8 of them. Are only allowing 90.6 rushing ypg, which is 3rd in the nation.
Spread: In their last 7 games are 6-1 ATS. After a SU win are 5-1 ATS in the L6. When favored by less than a TD, have covered the L6.
Total: Against a team with a winning record, the under is 5-2 in the L7. The L3 games have gone under.
SU: When favored by less than a TD, have won the L6.
With the Florida opt outs I’m really not sure about a side to take. I don’t feel confident enough in picking the over still, but I’m also not dumb enough to pick an under between these two offenses, even with the opt outs. So going with the square pick of Oklahoma to cover since the line has switched to them. It will be a very good game though, but likely not for bettors.
Giphy Images.#9 Georgia vs. #8 Cincinnati - Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Friday, Jan. | 12pm @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Ga. (opened UGA -7, 50.5)
Georgia (7-2) games have been averaging 53.1 total points, with UGA scoring 33.2 of them. Averaging only allowing 69.3 rushing ygp, which is #1 in the nation. Run the ball well but prioritize passing.
Spread: When favored against a top 10, are 6-2 ATS in the L8.
Total: Against teams with a winning record, the last 4 games have gone over. At a neutral site, the under is 4-1 in the L5. In their L6 bowl games, the under is 5-1. In their L6 games, the over is 6-1 in the L7. When favored, the over is 5-1 in the L6.
Cincinnati (9-0) off of an AAC championship win over 27-24 Tulsa. Split between running and passing the ball. Games have been averaging 45.3 total points, with Cincy scoring 39.3 of them.
Spread: Have covered the L4 games on a Friday.
Total: When an underdog against a team with a winning record, the under is 7-1 in the L8. When an underdog, the under is 10-2 in the L12. On Friday games the over is 5-1 in the L5.
I know that Georgia has found its offensive footing recently, but none of those games were against good defenses like Cincinnati. So I’ll take the under and Georgia to cover. I would love for Cincinnati to make a name for themselves and show the CFP committee they were wrong, but I think that Georgia has more experience in big games. Let the Georgia 2021 National Champs hype train start here.
Giphy Images.#25 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa State - PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 2 | 4pm @ State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Ariz. (opened ISU -4, 56.5)
Oregon (4-2) coming off of a PAC-12 title game win over USC. Games have been averaging 61 total points with Oregon scoring 33.7 of them. Can run the ball but favor passing.
Spread: Have covered the L5 against teams with a winning record. Have covered their L3 games as underdogs. Have covered the L4 games against ranked teams.
Total: Against a team with a winning percentage, the over is 6-1 in the L7. After a SU win, the over has hit in the L6.
SU: Have won the L13 games against teams with winning records.
Iowa State (8-3) coming off of a Big 12 title game loss, 27-21 to Oklahoma. Games have been averaging 54.6 total points, with Iowa State scoring 32.8 of them. Can run the ball but favor passing. Has the #10 rushing defense.
Spread: When favored, are 5-1 ATS in the L6 games. At a neutral site, are 1-5 ATS in the L6.
Total: Against a team with a winning record, the L8 have gone under. L6 bowl games have gone under. Against a ranked team, the under is 5-1 in the L6. The L7 neutral site games have gone under.
Not many great patterns or stats here, I’ll put a hand up for that one. But going with the under and Oregon to cover. Oregon is the luckiest team ever to be even getting a NY6 bowl, but that’s a rant for another time.
Giphy Images.#13 North Carolina vs. #5 Texas A&M - Capital One Orange Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 2 | 8pm @ Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL (opened A&M -6, 69)
UNC (8-3): coming off of a 62-26 win over Miami. Games have been averaging 71.4 total points, with UNC scoring 43.0 of them. Has the #4 total offense. First time playing in a game in January since 1998.
Opt outs: LB Chazz Surrat, WR Dyami Brown, RB Mike Carter, and RB Javonte Williams.
Spread: After a spread win, are 0-4 ATS in their next game.
Total: Against a team with a winning record, the over is 7-2 in the L9.
Texas A&M (8-1) coming off of a 34-13 win over Tennessee. Their only loss of the year was to Alabama 52-24, back in week 2. Games have been averaging 53.0 total points, with A&M scoring 31.9 of them. Has the #4 rushing defense.
Spread: Covered the L4 games against ACC teams.
Total: When favored, the under is 6-2 in the L8. After a spread win, the under is 5-1 in the L6.
SU: Has won the L12 games they were the favorite in.
This game will be a huge preview of UNC’s offense for next year since we lost 3 of our top scorers. No, I’m not mad they opted out, good for them for moving onto the next step of their career, and finally getting paid. Am I less hopeful about UNC’s chances? A bit, sure. But I’m excited to see that, hopefully, the future of UNC’s offense is ready to go. So give me the under. Won’t pick a spread cause I refuse to do that with UNC games. Kayce and I still need to figure out our bet for this one. Listen to Unnecessary Roughness' next episode to hear what it is.
Giphy Images.#4 Notre Dame vs. #1 Alabama - Rose Bowl Game
Friday, Jan. 1 | 4pm @ AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX (opened Alabama -20, 65)
Matchup:
2013: Alabama won 42-14 @ neutral (Alabama -10, 41)
Notre Dame (10-1) coming off of a 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. Games have been averaging 53.8 total points with ND scoring 35.2 of them. Both run and pass the ball.
Spread: Hasn’t been this big of an underdog since 2008. Against a team with a winning record, are 6-1 ATS in the L7.
Total: The L4 games against an SEC opponent have gone under. At a neutral site, the under has hit 7-1 in the L8 games. As an underdog, the under is 5-1 in the L6.
SU: Has lost the L5 when an underdog by 14+.
Alabama (11-0) coming off of an SEC Championship game win 52-46 over Florida. Games have been averaging 69.2 total points, with Alabama scoring 49.7 of them. Can run the ball well, but heavy passing team. Has the #2 scoring offense, #5 passing offense, and #5 total offense.
Spread: When favored by 17+, have covered the L6. At a neutral site, are 2-4 ATS in the L6. On Friday games, they haven’t covered the L4. In games in January, are 2-6 ATS in the L8.
Total: In playoff games, the under is 4-1 in the L5.
Oh I can’t WAIT for Notre Dame to be ripped a new asshole. Yes Notre Dame isn’t terrible, it is just Alabama being just that much better than everyone else besides maybe Clemson. Give me Alabama and the over. I know stats call for the under, so feel free to go that way, but just think that Alabama’s offense is better than Notre Dame’s defense, and Alabama’s defense isn’t thaaaaat perfect.
Giphy Images.#3 Ohio State vs. #2 Clemson - Allstate Sugar Bowl
Friday, Jan. 1 | 8pm @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA (opened Clemson -7, 65)
Matchup: Clemson has won and covered the last 3. The last 2 have gone under. Both defenses are allowing under only 100 rushing ypg.
2019: Clemson won 29-23 @ neutral (Clem -2.5, 63.5)
Ohio State (6-0) is coming off of a Big Ten championship win over Northwestern 22-10. Both run and pass the ball fairly equally. Games have been averaging 63.5 total points, with OSU scoring 42.5 of them. Has the 6th total offense. Passing defense is 104th.
Spread: At a neutral site, are 1-5 ATS in the L6. When an underdog by 7+, have covered the L5. Against teams with a winning record, haven’t covered the L4.
Total: The L4 games at a neutral site have gone under. When an underdog by 7+ the L4 have gone over. Against teams with a winning record, the under is 9-2-1 in the L12.
Clemson (10-1) coming off of an ACC Championship game win over Notre Dame 34-10. Can run the ball well but a heavy passing team. Has the #7 passing offense.
Spread: At a neutral site, are 9-2 ATS in the L11, and when favored have covered the L6. When favored by 7+ against a ranked team, are 7-1 ATS in the L8.
Total: When favored at a neutral site, the under is 5-1 in the L6. When favored against a top 10 team, the under has hit 5-1 in the L6. When favored by 7+ against a ranked team, the under is 7-1 in the L8.
SU: Have won the L9 when favored at a neutral site.
This is going to be a good game, least I think it has the potential to be. The issue is going to be Ohio State’s passing defense, which up against an offensive weapon like Trevor Lawrence and his receivers, could be huge. Justin Fields is good enough to get past Clemson’s defense, maybe not every time, but for likely at least 21 points. He wasn’t great under pressure against Northwestern, and I can only imagine Clemson will bring more. So hopefully he has improved since we last saw him. But give me the over and Clemson to cover.
If you do bet on these please do so responsibly.