Rebound The... Football ?
Maybe I should clarify. I need to rebound the football... picks. Last week got ugly fast. PJ Fleck is in the gambling graveyard. USC still hasn't got off the bus vs Stanford (although they did throw their coach under it), and now we know why Iowa has dominated that rivalry vs Iowa State for so long.
The picks were ugly, but his blog provided a sweep in the over and under section last week, as well as a Cal cover vs TCU. Let's get back on the right track both with the card, and the blog this week.
Let's start as always with the questions of the week:
- The team I’m eyeing up in a bounce back spot is _______
This one's off the beaten path, and technically they didn't lose, but I would say Wyoming here. The Cowboy defense gave up 43 last week to Northern Illinois. It's very difficult to win in Laramie, and I think Ball State off a physical game vs State Penn will be in a bad spot vs a Cowboy team with a solid QB in Sean Chambers and a clear home field advantage. The number's been moving more than Gas stock prices during the outdoor dining surge, but I played Wyoming -6.5 in this one.
- My favorite home dog is ______
There's very few home dogs on the board this week. One I would look at is San Diego St +8.5 vs Utah. The Utes are off a loss in the Holy War. San Diego St has always been a good disciplined team, if you had to play one, The Aztecs would be my pick.
- ________ isn’t as good as everyone says
I'm going to back my best bet here and say Indiana. Granted Indiana got punched by Iowa to open the year, although it seems like a lot of people are still in love with the Hoosiers particularly this week. Many people are calling this game a toss up. I have great respect for Indiana's defense (35th best vs the Pass, 47th vs the run), I love Tom Allen - I think he can do everything possible to motivate a locker room. However, if the defenses in this game are a draw... Cincy's offense holds the advantage in my eyes. I like Desmond Ridder a lot, and I think Cincinnati still has hope for the playoff as of right now with Iowa State's loss and Ohio State's loss. I think the Bearcats have had this one circled all summer, and it will show. Bearcats by a touchdown. Cincy -4
- ________ isn’t as bad as everyone says
Ohio State caught a ton of shit this week, and now battles uphill to get back in the CFP race. The defense needs work don't get me wrong, however if they run the table (which I still think is very possible), they'll be in the CFP. Also don't be surprised if it's style points the rest of the way- starting now. I think they smoke Tulsa off the loss to Oregon. Look at their team total over.
Situational Spots
Road Warriors ( teams on the 2nd game of back to back road games )
- Boston College @ Temple
- Tulsa @ Ohio State
- Purdue @ Notre Dame
- UAB @ North Texas
- Ball State @ Wyoming
- Eastern Michigan @ UMASS
- Stanford @ Vanderbilt
- Utah @ San Diego State
- South Carolina @ Georgia
- Georgia Southern @ Arkansas
Stat Corner
I've hinted at this in the last couple of weeks and now with every team in the country having data points we can dive into it.This section will look at how teams match up as combined stats (a good read on the tempo of the game- shootout, low scoring etc), as well as which team has an advantage on one side of the ball. Ex- Who's on of the best running teams in the country going against a weak run defense ?)
Most Combined PPG
- Looking for overs? Here's the 5 highest combined totals of matchups this week :
Nebraska / Oklahoma combined 92 ppg -
Auburn / State Penn combined 91 ppg
Coastal Carolina / Buffalo combined 86.5 ppg
* I played the CC/Buffalo over 58 -*
SMU / La Tech combined 85 ppg
* I played the SMU/ LA Tech Over 65.5*
Bama / Florida combined 84 ppg
Here's a few more because I went 4-11 last week ,
Memphis / Miss St (combined 78 ppg), BC /Temple (combined 77.5 ppg), Virginia/UNC (combined 77 ppg)
* Now - this does not mean every game in this section is going over. Everything is related to previous opponents etc. Auburn scores 61 a game because they played Akron and Alabama State. I do however believe that over the course of the year you can get a good judgment on which teams do things well and will continue to look each week at them. Lastly, everything evens itself out. A good offense now is judged through two games, in 3 weeks it could very well be a different story. Watch games, examine box scores, use your judgment and instincts. -*
Lowest Combined PPG
Want to be like Brandon Walker aka Davey Scatino aka The Cooz who hates Overs ?
That's perfectly fine. Winners are winners. Defensive struggles cash tickets also. Here's the lowest combined PPG for matchups this weekend:
Eastern Michigan / UMASS (combined 38.5 ppg)
UAB / North Texas (combined 47 ppg)
Bonus stat - in 38 of UAB's last games …33 have been under the total of 57. I like the under in this game-
Charlotte / Georgia State (combined 48 ppg)
Minnesota / Colorado (combined 52 ppg)
Arkansas St / Washington (combined 53.5 ppg)
But Rico … there's two sides of the ball. What about Defense ?
I'm glad you asked. Now on the flip side … here's a look at combined defensive statistics :
Most Combined PPG ALLOWED
Eastern Michigan / UMASS (combined 72.5 ppg allowed)
Charlotte / Georgia State (combined 70 ppg allowed)
Ball State / Wyoming (combined 62 ppg allowed)
Arkansas St / Washington (combined 60 ppg allowed)
Tulsa / Ohio State (combined 56.5 ppg allowed)
Boston College / Temple (combined 56.5 ppg allowed)
- So again. Not everything paints a clear picture here because EMU and UMASS combine to score the lowest in the country but allow the most ppg on defense. Which side do you trust ? The bad defenses seem like they'll give up a ton, but the offenses are putrid . Can you trust those offenses to score ?. These are all things to consider when you responsibly research the games you wager on. -
Fewest Combined PPG allowed
S.Carolina / Georgia (combined 13 ppg allowed)
Auburn / State Penn (combined 16 ppg allowed)
Virginia / UNC (combined 24 ppg allowed)
Clemson / GA Tech (combined 26 ppg allowed)
VA Tech / WVU (combined 27 ppg allowed)
Mismatches
Look for these distinct advantages on one side of the ball this weekend. (All stats based on yards per game)
- Miss St 16th rated pass offense vs Memphis 127th rated pass defense
on the flip side - Memphis 12th rated passing offense vs Miss St 114th pass defense
* - I like the over in that one*
- UCF 9th rated pass offense vs Louisville 102nd rated pass defense
- Charlotte 28th rush offense vs Georgia State 118th rated rush defense
- Baylor 5th rated rush offense vs Kansas 98th rated rush defense
- Duke 18th rated rush offense vs Northwestern 93 rated rush defense
Injuries
-Kansas St QB Sklyar Thompson is out indefinitely
- BC was dealt a massive blow , with QB Phil Jurkovec likely done for the year
- WR Chris Autman-Bell of Minnesota is questionable vs Colorado
- Texas A&M QB Haynes King (tibia) is out indefinitely.
- Alabama LB Will Anderson is questionable vs Florida
Watch the full episode of Barstool Pick Em :
Full card : https://twitter.com/Return_Of_RB/status/1438869444294582276?s=20
Stay safe and gamble responsibly.