Five "Feel It In My Plums" Picks - NFL Week 5

First off, everybody needs to see Stu in this-

How is it already week 5? Last week was a wild one with some shockers like the Jets pulling off a huge upset against Tennessee.

Another miserable 2-3 week last week has dropped the "Let The Boy Watch" wagon to 8-12. But week 5 things turn around. 

This week features the highest over/under of the season when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (56). Last week, the Chiefs covered for just the third time in their past 15 games, including the playoffs. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been the best team against the spread (ATS) since the start of last season, including having the top cover margin in 2021.

The weekend also features the lowest over/under of the season as the New England Patriots visit the Houston Texans (39). It's the first time a rookie quarterback (Mac Jones) is favored by at least eight points on the road since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.

Last week underdogs were: 8-8 ATS, and 6-10 SU 

On the season so far they are; 38-26 ATS, and 27-37 SU 

As far as road teams, last week they went: 9-7 ATS, 9-7 SU

And on the season they are; 36-28 ATS; and 33-31 SU 

And as for the Overs Club? Not doing so hot.

Unders were: 7-9 in Week 4, but are; 36-28 this season

As for the best and worst teams ATS

• Teams 4-0 ATS: Dallas Cowboys

• Teams 0-4 ATS: None

• Teams 4-0 over: Los Angeles Rams

• Teams 4-0 under: Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers

Let's get to the picks -

Cleveland Browns at LA CHARGERS -2.5

The Browns (3-1) lead the league in rushing yards per game, averaging 177, while the Chargers (3-1) allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game an average of 139.5. 

Stefanski is no dumb dumb so expect to see a ton of Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this one.

Cleveland’s coupling of a strong ground attack and a defense tied for second in sacks (14) means they can keep a team off the field, and force a lot of three and outs. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has shown he can keep pace with any team so far this season, but this defensive front will be a challenge for him. I think the kid has what it takes to step up and get rid of the ball quick enough to move the chains. 

There's also the concern with the QB on the other side. The precise injury status of the torn labrum affecting the left (non-throwing) shoulder of Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield remains super critical. Case Keenum is the Browns’ secondary option under center and if he's forced to come in then you can pretty much call it a wrap.

I like the Chargers at home in this one.

• Cleveland are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games against LA Chargers.
• Cleveland is 3-11 ATS against AFC opponents since the start of last season.
• Cleveland are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers.
• LA Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
• LA Chargers are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland.
• LA Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.

San Fransisco 49ers at ARIZONA CARDINALS -5.5

Last year, both meetings between these two conference rivals were won by the road underdog (both were at least six-point underdogs).

This matchup sees a rookie QB, Trey Lance, stepping in to fill Pretty Jimmy's shoes, on the road against a pretty legit defense. And an extraordinary offense that leads the N.F.L. with 35 points per game and last week carved up the Rams’ defense. I think Trey Lance is a stud but he can't go shot for shot with Kyler Murray and this offense.

My only suggestion here is buy the hook, I can see this one ending 28-23.

• San Francisco are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
• San Francisco are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
• San Francisco are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Arizona.

BUFFALO BILLS +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

This one is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo enters with the best points differential in the NFL at plus-90. The Bills' shutout victories over Houston and Miami were against backup quarterbacks. The step-up in class against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes will make a big difference.

The Bills' defense has looked great this season but it hasn't faced a quarterback of Patrick Mahomes' caliber, home or away. The Chiefs have found a balanced offense and the big pass plays are flowing again to Tyreek Hill as teams continue to pick their poison between him and Travis Kelce. Mahomes didn't like being under .500 and doesn't want to be there again. The Bills' offense also will cause plenty of problems for the Chiefs' defense with Josh Allen playing well and spreading the ball around. 

The Chiefs are giving up a league-worst 6.9 yards per play. Buffalo ranks first at 4.0 yards per play allowed. The Bills bolstered their pass rush in the offseason and we're seeing the results: They're second in pressure rate. As mentioned above, road underdogs of six or fewer points are 18-6 ATS (75 percent) this season. This is a game the Bills have had circled all offseason. Take the points in this AFC Championship Game rematch, but don't be surprised by an outright upset.

• Buffalo are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Buffalo are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• Kansas City are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Kansas City are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at home.
• Kansas City are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.

 Also- we have a great promo going for this game. 

Philadelphia Eagles at CAROLINA PANTHERS - 3

The Panthers suffered their first loss last week, but after two straight on the road they return to face an Eagles team that is 1-3. Philadelphia did some good things on offense against the Chiefs, but the defense had issues. Carolina's defense is coming off a tough game at Dallas, but I think they regroup here. 

Even before the news that Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, I liked Carolina. The Panthers faced a very legit offense that many, including myself, underestimated Sunday in Dallas, but they should have a lot more success at home against the reeling Eagles. Carolina was utterly dominant defensively in its first two home games versus the Jets and Saints. And they are up against a defense that can't figure it out yet. This Eagles defense allowed Kansas City receiver Tyreek Hill to score three touchdowns last week and that is tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns allowed (9). Lay the points in this one.

• Philadelphia are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
• Carolina are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
• Carolina are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference East division.
• Carolina are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 5.
• Carolina are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Sunday.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -2.5 at Washington FBT

The Saints might be the leagues biggest mystery so far. Playing up or down to the competition while waiting for the return of starters like receiver Michael Thomas and defensive tackle David Onyemata.

Washington has serious problems in their secondary and a big projected injury report after nine players were knocked out of their 34-30 win over Atlanta. 

Starting linebacker Jon Bostic and four-time Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff won't play, and tight end Logan Thomas seems unlikely to either. Marshon Lattimore can limit Washington's top weapon, Terry McLaurin. The Saints blew their home opener with a late collapse vs. the Giants, but Jameis still played well. 

Sean Payton will have his squad regrouped after a loss and I think they take care of business easily in this one.

• New Orleans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Washington are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

Let the boy watch

And if you think these picks are dogshit then I suggest tailing Megan Makin Money. She's been on fire