Andre Curbelo Has The Perfect Chance Tonight To Prove Everyone Hyping Him Up Isn't Wrong About His Game
Woof just a gross day yesterday. Missed completely on Florida State and Yale. Lost Princeton in double OT and escaped Drexel nearly giving away the 16 point cover. We move on. We move on to the start of a hell of a two weeks of basketball. I love the early season tournaments. Always have, always will. That's a promise. Next week is the real gem. But this week we get Gavitt Games and some of the smaller tournaments. Nothing beats day time basketball.
But like I say in every blog here. I'm willing to take any and all feedback for how you want the daily picks blog set up. My goal here is to always show why my picks are just that and breakdown the biggest games of the day too. But if there's a better concept or way to put it out there, let me know. Let's get into today.
As always - all the lines come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Download the app here.
2021-22 Season Record: 16-15
I'll be honest, I don't love this game, but I can't shake it. Why? Because of what Illinois still has despite not having Kofi Cockburn for this game. They are still murdering teams - granted, weak teams - on the glass. They still get after you defensively - currently ranked No. 1 on KenPom defensively through two games. Here's the main reason I'm taking Illinois on the road as a favorite, something I typically hate. I don't trust Marquette's guard play. Tyler Kolek is a transfer from George Mason who is playing about 20 minutes a game. He also has a 20% turnover rate. Not great when Illinois can throw a handful of different guards on him to bother him. They play two freshmen in Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell. The only one with experience that I trust is Darryl Morsell, who is better suited playing off the ball. I know Milwaukee will be crazy, but it's not like Illinois lacks experience. Trent Frazier has been in college forever. I just trust some free points off the offensive glass and the fact Marquette fouls .. a ton. Also Curbelo is incredible against a press.
Pick: Illinois -8
Probably the best game of the day honestly. But I'm playing a spot play here. Furman is coming off the win at Louisville. Now they have to play Belmont? That screams for me to take Belmont here. And for the advantage Furman has with two ball handlers and spacing teams out, Belmont has a bigger one. His name is Nick Muszynski. The big man is one of the best bigs in the country. Furman can't defend him. The over is a bit tempting here too with the differing offenses and weaknesses. But this is screaming spot play.
Pick: Belmont -7
Providence is EXTREMELY undervalued here. They have an experienced guard in Jared Bynum who can take care of the ball and get others involved. They also have the biggest mismatch of the game. Who guards Nate Watson? How does Wisconsin stop Nate Watson? There's no experience in the frontcourt for Wisconsin - weird to say. I know they have Chris Vogt, but it's his first season in the system. Crowl is another 7-footer, but barely played as a freshman. Putting him on Watson and expecting him to slow him down is a tall order. Providence is going to dare Wisconsin to beat them from three. That's fine. I don't trust this team to shoot that well, even at home. I know it's a road game, but these two teams are way too close for the line to be 5.5. I'll take my shot here.
Pick: Providence +5.5
How can I put this politely? Cal is a bad basketball team. They are 0-2 with losses to UC San Diego and UNLV. Now they get a San Diego team who is coming off a win at Nevada. Not only a win, but an impressive win. I really like that Nevada team. That said, Cal struggles with two things mostly. 1) They don't have a point guard/multiple guys to create for themselves. I don't care who you play, that's not great! 2) They struggle defensively due to the size they have to play with. They are middle of the pack country wise early on in terms of 2pt percentage defensively. San Diego has Terrell Brown, a 6'10" transfer from Pitt, who is efficient and also is one of the best rim protectors in the country. I'm fading Cal until they figure out point guard play.
Pick: San Diego +4
PS: I don't have a feel on the game, but Buffalo/North Texas is going to be awesome. Weird line movement there too. I saw Buffalo at -2 and it's now to Buffalo +1. If you like midmajor basketball, watch that.