Five "Feel It In My Plums" Picks - NFL Week 11 BONUS - Kelly In Vegas & Marco Piemonte Plays

Big rebound week last week bouncing back with a nice 5-1 spot. (What on Earth was I thinking taking Cleveland in Foxboro...)

24-27 on the year now. 

Looking to get hot this week with these:

MIAMI DOLPHINS -3 at New York Jets

Joe Flacco is getting the start for the J-E-T-S today. And in him, Miami could not have dreamt a more ideal QB to face. The Dolphins’ defense is blitz-crazy at times, and Flacco is not exactly Lamar Jackson. (Who the Dolphins beat last week.) Do not bank on the Jets’ defense to bail out the offense. It has been smoked for at least 45 points in three of the last four games. 

Tua Tagovailoa is back in the lineup after coming off the bench in last week's win over Baltimore. The Dolphins also got three extra days to prepare for this one.

Miami's defense has also finally rounded into form the last few weeks after injuries hampered the secondary especially early in the year.

This line looked ready to fall off the key number of three, so I gladly laid the -120 before that happened. Do I like laying points on the road? No. But this is the Jets.

• Miami are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against NY Jets.
• NY Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
• NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference East division.

Washington FBT at CAROLINA PANTHERS -3

Washington coach Ron Rivera would be better able to capitalize on his knowledge of ex-pupil Cam Newton if he had Chase Young at his disposal. But Newton has been spared, with the Washington DE injured, and Rivera’s defense is ranked 27th anyway. The Panthers’ unit is nearly the polar opposite. It ranks No. 2 overall and, more importantly, second in fewest scoring drives allowed per possession. Newton might play less of a factor for Carolina than RB Christian McCaffrey, who is back in form after an injury layoff.

Without Washington DE Chase Young (knee) upfront, it also makes things a bit easier for the Panthers' offensive line. Washington is coming off of a strong effort against Tampa Bay, but you get the feeling this team is counting down the weeks until this season is over.

• Washington are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
• Washington are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Carolina.
• Washington are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

DALLAS COWBOYS +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

This 2021 Chiefs team are frauds.

They dropped 41 points on the Raiders heads last week after scoring 36 in their previous THREE games combined, and the market believes that's enough to say the Chiefs are now fixed. 

That's the only way to justify this line, as the Chiefs have to be considered even or better with the Cowboys as home-field advantage hasn't been worth anywhere near three points this year. 

But the Cowboys have been pretty fucking good all year aside from the Denver game, and they represent a much bigger test for the improved Chiefs defense than anything they've seen during their latest run of quality. 

I don't think this line has any business being north of pick 'em, so I'll take the extra points of value here.

• Dallas are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
• Dallas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• Kansas City are 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
• Kansas City are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7 at Buffalo Bills

Fun Fact -

Top turnover differentials in the NFL:
1. Bills +14
2. Colts +11

Most points off takeaways in the NFL:
1. Colts 77
2. Bills 74

Frank Reich returns home to Buffalo!

The Colts come in having won five of seven, both losses coming in overtime. But, Indy actually got outplayed by Jacksonville last Sunday. So that's a slight concern. As is the fact Buffalo defends the run well and ranks second in pressure rate.

But I think the Colts' physical style of play can keep this one close on the road. The Colts are well-coached and have familiarity with Buffalo. The Bills defeated Indy 27-24 as seven-point home favorites in last season's playoffs, despite getting outgained 472-397.

Take the points.

• Indianapolis are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
• Indianapolis are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games against Buffalo.
• Indianapolis are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
• Indianapolis are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference East division.
• Buffalo are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference South division.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -0.5 at Seattle Seahawks 

Well, I'm gonna be honest with you guys, I thought Kyler Murray was starting today when I placed this bet last night.

And even with this news, I'm staying positive and talked myself into doubling down with another unit getting 3.

The Seahawks are have been a coin flip ATS this season (5-4). Arizona backup Colt McCoy has his own injury issues. But for Seattle, top RB Chris Carson is done for the season. The Seahawks were shut out last Sunday in Russell Wilson’s hasty return from finger surgery.

The Seahawks have lost twice in overtime and another game by a field goal, putting them at 3-6. Their season is on the line in this game. 

All of that said, even without Murray and Hopkins, this one shouldn’t be close against the worst team in the NFC West. This Cardinals team is the real deal and is on a collision course to meet Dallas in the playoffs, probably the NFC Championship.

• Arizona are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
• Arizona are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
• Arizona are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Seattle.
• Seattle are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona.

Kelly In Vegas' picks -

Marco Piemonte's Picks -

LET THE BOY WATCH

P.S. - If anybody sees anything good for the NFL roundups tomorrow please send them my way