It's Time For The Arnold Palmer Invitational At Bay Hill Club

It's time for Arnie's tournament! Welcome to one of the Tour's most iconic stops - Bay Hill Club in Orlando, FL. 

This tournament has a lot of rich history. It holds invitational status, much like the Genesis a couple weeks ago where I detailed what invitational status meant for Tiger's tournament. Speaking of Tiger, this is also a tournament that he's historically dominated at. There are a handful of tracks that were on his annual schedule that he just obliterated fields at. Torrey Pines, Firestone CC, Augusta National, Muirfield Village, and Bay Hill are all courses that Tiger won 5+ times at, with Bay Hill leading the way with 8 wins. Some of his most iconic celebrations came here, including his first win in 2009 after the reconstructive knee surgery to repair the injury he played through at the 2008 US Open:

 

Last year's version was won in a tight duel between Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood that came down to the final hole. Westwood needed birdie on 18 to put some pressure on Bryson, but his fairway drive found a divot, keeping him from attacking the classic Sunday pin on the far right. Of course, the story of the week was Bryson hitting tanks on #6 over the weekend. More on that in a bit. Sadly, he won't be defending his title this year as lingering injuries keep him on the shelf.

Last year's leaderboard and recent winners…

2021 Leaderboard

Recent Winners

The Course

Bay Hill is a par 72 measuring about 7,400 yards. It was designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, who designed a handful of other notorious Florida courses such as PGA National and TPC Blue Monster at Doral. Arnold Palmer purchased the club and lodge in 1974 and his family has owned it ever since, with this tournament starting in 1979. 

It's well known for the role the water hazards play, which is surprising when you hear that water is only in play on 9 of its holes. Many of them force the players to make decisions based on both club choice and line, especially the 3rd and 6th. The rough is typically pretty gnarly and I've heard that's especially true this week.

In terms of what skillset plays best here, there is not a course on Tour with a larger emphasis on Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. I would attribute that more to driving accuracy than distance, mainly due to that aforementioned water. Long iron play is also a premium, with the shortest of the par 3's clocking in at 196 yards and the other three measuring over 215 yards. The greens are bermuda and are typically lightning fast, which tends to favor the more skilled putters on Tour. 18 is one of the great finishing holes with the water right and the pin usually tucked on the right on Sunday.

Best Hole - 6th Hole, Par 5 555 yards (… or is it?) 

This is a whale of a hole where something interesting almost always happens. The lake that separates the 3rd and 6th holes is nearly a perfect circle. If the circle were to be a clock, the back tee box is at about 7 o'clock and the green is at 12, roughly a mere 350 yards away on a straight line. This creates a fascinating dilemma in terms of what line the players take off the tee. Obviously the further left your line, the more water and risk you take on. But if you take too conservative a line, you can easily hit through the fairway and leave yourself another risky dilemma based on your angle at the green for your 2nd shot. I can't really think of another hole on tour that is designed so simply while also being completely unique in the way it challenges the players. 

Of course, this hole was the center of attention last year as Bryson took on a completely different line as the rest of the field

This was rumored to be happening all week leading up to the event, so I had to fly my ass down to Orlando and catch it for myself first hand:

Also, think this hasn't been tried before? Think again.

Who else would dare attempt such an audacious feat, albeit unsuccessfully?

Who knows if anyone else has the balls to try to chew off more water this year. I saw Rory (twice) and Jason Kokrak each try to cut off more yardage on the weekend last year and end up overcooking draws into the drink. It's a shame we won't get to see Bryson go at it again but maybe somebody else has the stones.

Also, Emilliano Grillo gave us one of the greatest club tosses the world has ever seen on this hole back in 2017. 

The Weather

Finally some heat out there… and a real good breeze too. Should spice things up over the weekend.

TV Coverage

Arnold Palmer himself founded the Golf Channel, so there's a heavy dose of that and NBC to go around this weekend.

The Trophy/Sweater 

This is some good looking hardware. That's not just some little golfer on top. That's the King with his classic high helicopter follow through. I've always said I love trophies that capture the fabric of a given tournament and this does that in a big way. And speaking of fabric, starting in 2017 after Arnold's passing you also get one of his iconic red cardigan sweaters. I love everything about it. This is another high grade, I'm giving this ensemble an 8.6/10. Even better in person.

The Board

World #1 Jon Rahm is teeing it up here for the first time in his career. He's the favorite at +800. Which is exactly what Rory was last year when he was the favorite. Rory is +1100 this week and he's my pick. His history here is pretty spectacular.

He was firmly in the mix going into the weekend last year, but fell apart on Sunday to finish T-10. Which included the most spectacular double bogey these eyes have ever seen where he was hitting 5 off the tee and kicked in a 3 footer to save 7.

This was during a period of time where Rory got caught up chasing Bryson's distance. He even said as much after missing the cut at the PLAYERS the following week.

He's since made some adjustments and won twice. In his last 11 events, he's finished outside the Top 25 just once, including 6 top 10's. His game is in a much better place than it was going into this event last year, and this is clearly a course he's comfortable with. And so am I. Last time I took Rors, he won the Wells Fargo. Join me.

Other Plays

Rory Top 5 +300/Top 10 +100 -  He's 5 for his last 5 on Top 10's here. Help yourself.

Will Zalatoris to win +2500 - Held his own as one of the guys who tied for 10th with Rory here last year. He's gonna win soon. Midas whale be here.

Matthew Fitzpatrick to win +2500 - Yet another guy who was T-10 last year. Has good Bay Hill history and was a popular pick last year too. Runner-up in 2019.

Marc Leishman Top 5 +750 - Has a W (2017), a 2nd, and a 3rd in his 12 event career here at Bay Hill.

Sahith Theegala Top 10 +1100 - I think his length will play well here.

Garrick Higgo Top 20 +550 - Same with Garrick. Can't believe how far down the board he is.

That's what I got. Should be an awesome week, devastated I won't be there.

Enjoy the Arnold Palmer.