Last Stop Before Augusta: The PGA Tour Heads South To San Antonio For The Valero Texas Open

Tom Pennington. Getty Images.

Welcome to the final stop on Tour before the crowned jewel of the golf calendar. After closing the books on an AWESOME week of match play in Austin, the Tour rolls a couple hours south to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. 

The Texas Open serves as your last chance to get a ticket to the big dance next week in Augusta. The Match Play was the last chance for anyone to make it in by way of being in the Top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Jason Day (33rd), Harris English (44th), Keith Mitchell (46th), and Min Woo Lee (47th) are the 4 new players that had not otherwise qualified, bringing the field total for The Masters at 89. Only way in now is to win the Texas Open this week.

JJ Spaun was that guy last year, edging out Matt Jones and Matt Kuchar by 2 strokes to punch his first ever ticket to Augusta. More years than not the winner falls into this bucket, as nearly anybody already qualified is resting and gearing up this week for the year's first major. Hell, Keith Mitchell was in this field but withdrew given that he did enough to earn his way in. 

But there's plenty more at stake in San Antonio this week. Of course, there's over $1.5M up for grabs to the winner. But there's also plenty of key FEC points in a season where they may be more valuable than ever. It's not just about getting into the Top 125 to keep your card for next season. It's about getting into that Top 50 so that you're invited to those limited field, guaranteed paydays at elevated events next season. 

Spaun is a great example of a guy who has leveraged his opportunity winning an event like this into much more. In addition to The Masters and a 2-year Tour exemption, he got into the Tournament of Champions and finished T-5 there, picking up big FEC points and $555k. That got him high enough into the OWGR at #71 (with some help from banned LIV guys) to get him into the Match Play, where he won his group and finished T-9 to pick up another $365k and even more key FEC points. Those are his best 2 finishes this year and have him at 48th in the FedEx Cup standings, just inside that key Top 50 number. A great example of how you can parlay an opportunity and earn yourself a seat at the table in the PGA Tour's new version of a meritocracy.

Anyway, last year's leaderboard and recent winners at TPC San Antonio.

2022 Leaderboard

Recent Winners

The Course

The AT&T Oaks Course is a Par 72 resort course measuring 7,438 yards and has hosted the Texas Open since 2010. Designed by Greg Norman (sure the Tour loves that), it features tree-lined fairways and some extraordinarily narrow greens. It's not that the greens are small. They're plenty deep. It's that they're not particularly wide. I've tried like hell to shoot low on this course on PGA Tour 2K23 and it's really damn tough to consistently hit greens. As if my video game analysis isn't enough, it's tough for these players too. It's annually among the course with the lowest GIR rate of any on Tour, historically around 57%. 

To make matters tougher, wind has been known to be a significant factor at this course, some years more than others. If you can flight the ball down and power it through the wind, you're going to have an advantage on the field. The course is designed to play downhill when the wind is typically in your face, and vice versa when playing uphill. Regardless, there's never been a cut line under par since this tournament moved to this course. So yeah, this course has the potential to play pretty tough.

Best Hole - 16th Hole Par 3, 183 yards 

Bunker in the middle of the dancefloor?!? Bunker in the middle of the dancefloor. You really only see this twice a year. Here, and Riviera's 6th hole. It's a fun wrinkle. You can treat the green as 4 different quadrants, which I expect the Tour to do in terms of pin placements. Hitting an adjacent quadrant from the pin is as good as a missed green. Always fun to see the guys get creative and pull a wedge out on the short stuff and try to flop it over the sand. Greenskeepers may not like it, but you gotta do whatcha gotta do. Awesome view of the clubhouse/resort coming in too. The 18th is a quality finishing hole as well featuring a creek cutting vertically through the fairway, so that deserves an honorable mention. 

The Weather

Windy as expected with some inclement weather hanging around. This forecast has WD written all over it for any guys who are playing next week and get off to a slow start.

TV Coverage

Golf Channel and NBC this week as Jim Nantz and the CBS gang put a bow (or should I say a tie) on his March Madness career.

The Trophy

Carmen Mandato. Getty Images.

This is a pretty sweet looking trophy here. Local skyline with the Alamo up front, outline of the state of Texas in the background… it's honestly perfect for what this tournament is. It's not overly gaudy, doesn't try to be more than what it is. This is the Texas Open and this trophy captures that to a T. Bonus points for the boots gives this a 7.8. 

Carmen Mandato. Getty Images.

The Board 

As you can see, not exactly a lights out field here this week. Tyrell Hatton is your favorite at +1200 at the Barstool Sportsbook as the only player in this field in the world top 20. Hatton has quietly put together a very good Masters lead-up with a T-6 at Phoenix, a T-4 at his perennial stomping grounds at Bay Hill, and a solo 2nd at Sawgrass. He also has made 18 straight cuts worldwide dating back to last year's Irish Open. Certainly the type of stuff that's going to put you at the top of a board like this one, even if he has never played this tournament. With that said, he looked brutal at last week's Match Play and battled an odd hand injury along the way. Doubt he'd be playing this week ahead of the Masters if it was a lingering issue but who knows.

I'm gonna roll with Ryan Fox +4000. He's a European Tour mainstay from New Zealand who had a career year in 2022 and has carried that forward with some solid (albeit not world-beating) results stateside in prep for his first Masters. He's gone T-14 at Bay Hill, T-27 at Sawgrass, and managed to notch a T-17 at the Match Play by being among the group of 2-1 guys left out of the knockout stage. With the wind and rainy conditions, this suggests a links-style guy and who better than the guy who last year's Alfred Dunhill Links Championship? Not to mention there's typically a little value on these types of foreign players under everyone's radar.

It would also be criminal if I didn't acknowledge Charley Hoffman and his typical dominance at this event. Golf Digest published this chart last January that showed the leading career prize money at each stop on Tour…. who on this list doesn't exactly fit?

But last year that trend was bucked, with him missing the cut for the first time ever…

But nonetheless, his presence looms large any time he's around this place and will be something to keep an eye on this year even if he has missed his last 4 cuts. He's +12500, so sprinkle on that if you're drinking the kool-aid. It seems unfathomable that he could win given that he's missed 4 straight cuts, but I'm gonna roll the dice on him to Top 10 +1200 and Top 30 +250.

Other Plays

Matt Kuchar Top 10 +300 - Another older fella who has played well here historically including runner-up last year, and he's mixed in some sneaky good finishes with 3 Top 10's since the Sony at Waialae, which is a course that is said to correlate well with this one.

Rickie Fowler Top 10 +225 - In his heyday Rickie was known to be a sneaky good player in the wind and I think he'll do well here. Of course the story is that he needs to win, but save for Sawgrass in 2015 when has he ever delivered in a big spot? That may be harsh but it's true. We'll see him at the 2024 Masters.

Ryan Palmer Top 20 +350 - 9/12 on cuts here including 6 Top 25's. Sure, most of those harken to a better day for Palmer, but I like the value on a Texas boy who is going to run out of opportunities quick to keep his Tour card if he doesn't show up on his home turf.

Kazuki Higa Top 10 +1200/Top 20 +450 - He's playing in the Masters next week on a special invitation, probably because he ran train on the Japan Tour last year with 4 wins. That was enough to get him up to as high as 67th in the world, but not qualify for Augusta. Anyways, a complete shot in the dark here and was surprised to see a Top 100 OWGR player in this field so far down the board.

Winner To Birdie 72nd Hole +200 - Par 5 finish here. Long one, but a fun bet nonetheless to get you some action down the stretch.

That's what I got this week. Best week right around the corner…