Rico Bosco's "Bosco's Bets"
Official kickoff to summer is upon us Rico Riders. While the rest of the world may be taking a break with a few Corona’s and a beach chair. OddsShark.com , the best place on the internet for stats, trends, betting market action, and all things gambling, is out grinding out info like they always do. Let’s get right to it.
Headlines :
-After his win at the Preakness Stakes, Exaggerator is the heavy favorite at Belmont. Mike Dempsey has a full breakdown of the short field for you here, but for those of you who like pretty pictures, here’s the graphic :
– Speaking of favorites heavy markets, The PGA Tour’s Dean and Deluca Invitational tees off at The Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX. Bovada is acutally offering a big payout or Spieth or Day coming away as the champ compared to the rest of the field.
Regarding individual odds, Stephen Campbell has us covered. Check them out right here.
– In the obscure category, it’s never too early to start thinking about Time’s Person of the Year, at least if you want to get your bets in early. Sadly Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump head up the list. Justing Hartling of OddsShark.com has the full list.
For those of you asking… yes I am LIVID that Brandon Doughty wasn’t listed.
NBA
Eastern Conference Finals Game 6
As always, here’s the trends :
Regarding The NBA Finals MVP race, there’s a few things that jump out to me regarding some serious value bets. First off, Lebron being ANY kind of positive money to me is value. I understand that yes he’s only +170, but do you really see the Raptors getting in the Finals ? So you’re telling me if I take Lebron , the best player on his team (possibly the league), who I’m pretty confident is a lock to at least get to the Finals I’ll be holding a ticket with a near 2-1 payout ?! Sign me up for that every single time.
Regarding bigger value, I’m writing this Thursday night aka before the fate of the Warriors is determined, there’s two obvious grabs in Kevin Durant at +325. To me, it’s actually VERY odd Russell Westbrook is higher at +400 than Durant. The way he affects the game defensively, as well as the way he seems to have a way of making a TON of “holy crap” plays. I really think that if the Thunder get to The Finals, Westbrook has the best odds of being the guy who takes them over. Like that prop a lot.
One last thought regarding value, if you like the Warriors to pull out of this hole, Steph Curry is +550 ! Granted if the Warriors win game 5 those odds will drop, but not astronomically and likely still around +350 worst case +250. Again, the best player on team is a 2.5-1 payout ? I like it.
As my boy, Stephen Campbell reminds us : “Last year Andre Igoudala came out of nowhere to become the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. The sixth man was a +125000 long shot win the award prior to Game 1, and some books didn’t even have his odds available before the series began.” Full read here.
MLB
Full slate of games as always. Full odds here.
For a little home cooking, here’s a deeper breakdown on: Big Cat’s Cubs vs Smitty’s Phillies , Clem’s Mets vs The Dodgers, Carrabis’s Red Sox vs Toronto, and Nate’s Nats vs The Cardinals.
PICKS
Lot of chirping from the comment section of why I haven’t made a pick recently. As mentioned, my expertise is College Football and Basketball. However, I’ve brought in guys to assist in various different sports who have done real well. I may remind you of Spread Investor who cleaned up in the NFL Playoffs, or when Sports Cheetah gave you all the 3pt winner ? Also last time I checked, Carrabis’s O/U bets are fairing well thus far if you took those.
With that said, I am not afraid to jump on a bet when it stands out to me. In fact I was 2-0 by my count in NBA picks this year in this column. So given it’s an awesome weekend, and I’m extremely upbeat I’m going back to the well and jumping on :
Cavs -6.5
Lebron catches a lot of heat on this blog, and while his off court and most times on court antics can be rather cringe worthy, he can still ball. And no this decision is not solely made on Lebron, but it’s a major factor. He’s now been to five straight NBA Finals, he understands the toll it will take on his body, especially facing a great team like The Thunder or The Warriors. The quicker he and the Cavs get to the Finals the better. The more prep they can do, the more prepared they are etc.
Case and point this game to me is a gut check game. One of those that Lebron stresses the importance of to his teammates, as well as challenges them to starting winning on the road, something they’ll need to do if they want to have any shot at bringing a title back to Cleveland. Additionally, for all the crap Lebron catches, you can’t say he hasn’t come to play (63.2 fg% total, 24.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg) these Eastern Conf Finals, especially on the road (Game 3: 52.9 fg %, 24 pts, 8 rebounds, 5 assists / Game 4: 68.8 fg %, 29 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists.)
Last thought, Lowry and Derozan had to shoot out of their minds to fend off the Cavs in Game 4. I can’t see the same thing happening. Cavs pull away in a big statement game.
– Happy MDW to the staff at D’Jais, and a very big thanks to Hank for the kind words to me and Mrs. Bosco.
CFB YTD: +31.15 units College Football 2015-2016 Season, 183-152-7 (+15.8 units) Regular season College Basketball via Twitter, +7.7 units in the NCAA Tournament. For all stats and trends check out OddsShark.com & follow @Rico_Bosco on twitter for picks, birthday wishes to Mike Francesa, questions, all things floral hats, admiration of D’Jais, and overall entertainment.